Stlouisams Baseball Betting News

<< Fedorov returning home to Russia
Magnitogorsk, Russia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sergei Fedorov has decided to leave the NHL after 18 seasons. Due to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, the Washington center has signed a two-year contract with Russian club Metallur

<< A-Rod ties Mr. October for 11th place all-time
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez hit his 563rd career home run in the first inning of Thursday's game against the Atlanta Braves and in the process tied former Yankee great Reggie Jackson for 11th place on the all-time home ru

<< Perry's 61 good for Travelers lead
Cromwell, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenny Perry had chance at the magical 59 on Thursday, but settled for a nine-under 61 and the first-round lead of the Travelers Championship. Perry needed to go two-under over his last three holes t

<< Former Amateur champ Kim moves on at PubLinx
Devens, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kimberly Kim, the 2006 U.S. Women's Amateur Champion, knocked off Sara-Maude Juneau, 2 & 1, Thursday to win her third- round match at the U.S. Women's Amateur Public Links Championship. Kim advanced

CFL announces final cutdowns >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Canadian Football League on Thursday announced its final roster cutdowns before the start of the regular season. Below is a list of players released, sorted by team and position: The B

Gal leads suspended Wegmans LPGA >>
Rochester, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sandra Gal fired an eight-under 64 and held a one-shot lead Thursday when the rain-delayed first round of the Wegmans LPGA was suspended due to darkness. Jiyai Shin stood alone in second place at seven-un

Ramirez slams Marlins past Orioles >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hanley Ramirez went 3-for-5 with a grand slam and five total runs batted in, as the Florida Marlins completed a three-game sweep of Baltimore with an 11-3 victory. Rookie Sean West (3-2) tossed six shutout inni

Smoltz struggles in Red Sox debut as Nationals cruise to win >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Willie Harris and Josh Bard each finished with three hits and drove in a pair of runs as Washington spoiled the Red Sox debut of John Smoltz with a 9-3 thrashing in the finale of a three-game interle

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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