Road-weary Phils return home to host Mets
Baseball Betting Lines
07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies limp back home tied atop the NL East after a dreadful road trip. Tonight, they try to improve upon their horrific play in front of their own fans when they open a three-game series against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park.
Before the Phillies embarked on their recent nine-game trek, they had been an incredible 23-9 away from home. However, after losing six of nine on the trip, including an ugly three-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies find themselves tied with the Florida Marlins for first place in the division with the Mets just a game back and the Braves only two behind.
Philadelphia fell for the 12th time in its last 15 tries on Thursday, falling 5-2 to the Braves.
The Phillies, who managed just seven runs in the sweep by the Braves, have been awful offensively, as Jimmy Rollins' season-long slump culminated with an 0-for-28 stint that was snapped in Thursday's loss with the former NL MVP finishing 2-for-4. Ryan Howard has also had a tough go of it of late with just one home run in his last 14 games.
Going home, though, may not cure Philadelphia's woes, as the Phillies are a dreadful 13-22 this season at home, where they will play their next 10 games.
As if things were not bad enough, the Phillies turn tonight to a pitcher in Rodrigo Lopez, who has not made a major league start since July 26, 2007 when he was with Colorado.
Lopez, a two-time 15-game winner for the Baltimore Orioles, endured Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter and was sidelined all of last season. This year in 13 starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Lopez was 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA.
The Mets, meanwhile, saved themselves from a crushing loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, before finally pulling out a 9-8 decision in 10 innings at PNC Park.
New York fell behind 5-0, but scored the next eight runs to take an 8-5 advantage into the ninth. However, the usually reliable Francisco Rodriguez gave it all back, as the Pirates scored three times in the ninth to send the game to extra innings.
Fernando Tatis, who finished 3-for-4 with a two-run homer and scored four times, was hit by a Matt Capps pitch with two down in the 10th, stole second, then motored home as Ryan Church bounced a base hit up the middle to put the Mets ahead by a run.
Rodriguez (2-2) then sent the Bucs down in order to finish the game.
"I'm the kind of guy that if I make a mess, I clean it up," Rodriguez said. "I felt really frustrated that I didn't get the job done in the ninth, then we score and I go back out there in the 10th."
New York's win was its second straight following a five-game slide.
The Mets will hand the ball tonight to Livan Hernandez, who is 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA. Hernandez lost his second straight start on Sunday against the New York Yankees, as he allowed three runs and three hits in seven innings.
Hernandez has faced the Phillies 24 times and is 10-8 in those contests with a 3.36 ERA.
New York has won four of its seven matchups with the Phillies after winning 11 of the 18 meetings a year ago.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
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