Lee homers twice as Cubs down Brewers
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrek Lee headlined a home run parade with two long-balls -- a three-run shot and a grand slam -- for a career-high seven RBI, leading the Chicago Cubs to a 9-5 win over the Milwaukee Brewers in the beginning of a crucial four-game series between the NL Central foes.
It was Lee's 20th career multi-homer game, as the Cubs won for the third time in four games. Jake Fox and Geovany Soto each hit a solo shot in a game that featured six total homers -- all in the first six innings.
Ryan Dempster (5-5) was the beneficiary of the run support, moving to 10-3 lifetime against Milwaukee after allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.
Mike Cameron and Prince Fielder each hit a home run for the Brewers, who have lost two in a row after winning four of their previous five. Seth McClung (3-2), in his second start of the year, was hammered for seven runs on seven hits with two walks and a strikeout in only 3 1/3 innings.
The Cubs got off to a quick start in the first. Sam Fuld drew a walk to lead off, Ryan Theriot followed with a single, and Lee scored everybody with a three-run homer to left for an early cushion.
Two batters later, Fox hit his fourth home run of the season for a 4-0 edge.
Cameron, though, answered for Milwaukee, blasting a two-run shot in the second to cut the Brewers' deficit in half.
To keep the home run parade going, Soto drilled his eighth of the year to lead off the fourth and give the Cubs a 5-2 lead.
Chicago blew the game wide open in the same frame thanks to more hot hitting from Lee. Following Soto's homer, Mike Fontenot and Fuld both singled, and Theriot walked, setting up Lee's grand slam to center for a commanding 9-2 advantage.
Fielder added to the home run tally with a leadoff shot in the sixth, pulling the Brewers to within 9-3. Ryan Braun produced the first non-homer run of the game with an RBI single in the seventh, although it still left Milwaukee down by five.
In the top of the eighth, with one out and Aaron Heilman pitching for Chicago, Cameron doubled, Corey Hart was hit by a pitch, and Jason Kendall grounded an RBI single through the left side of the infield for a 9-5 game.
Heilman limited the damage by retiring the next two hitters, and Carlos Marmol finished off the Brewers in the ninth.
Game Notes
Thursday marked the beginning of an 11-game homestand for the Cubs. They will also face Atlanta and St. Louis while at Wrigley Field...Chicago leads the season series, 4-3...Cameron finished 3-for-4, while Fielder was 2-for-4 for Milwaukee...Fuld and Theriot both had a pair of hits for Chicago...Since May 30, a span of 29 games, Lee is hitting .339 with nine homers and 29 RBI. He has 14 home runs total this season. It was his 10th career grand slam...Dempster earned his first win since May 30.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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